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Trading Expectancy Calculator

Find out whether a trading system has an edge. Enter your win rate with your average win and loss, or paste a list of trade results, to see expectancy per trade, profit factor, break-even win rate and what to expect over your next trades.

Last updated:

Input method
Your trading results
%

Share of trades that make money

$
$

Enter as a positive number

Separate with commas, spaces or new lines. Losses are negative.

Costs and projection
$

Commission + typical slippage; ignored for trade lists if already net

$

Used to show expectancy as % of account

Enter your values to see the result.
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How to use the Trading Expectancy Calculator

  1. Choose the input method: win rate and averages, or a pasted list of trade profits and losses.
  2. Enter your win rate, average win and average loss (the loss as a positive number), or paste your trades with losses negative.
  3. Add fees per trade so commissions and slippage are counted.
  4. Set the number of future trades and optionally your account size.
  5. Press Calculate expectancy to see your edge, profit factor, break-even win rate and the win-rate table.

The expectancy formula, explained

Every trade is either a win or a loss. Expectancy weights each outcome by how often it happens:

Expectancy = W × average win − (1 − W) × average loss, where W is your win rate as a decimal.

  • Profit factor = (W × average win) ÷ ((1 − W) × average loss) = gross profit ÷ gross loss.
  • Payoff ratio = average win ÷ average loss.
  • Break-even win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss) = 1 ÷ (1 + payoff ratio).
  • Expectancy in R = expectancy ÷ average loss.

Example: 40 trades with 18 wins averaging $280 and 22 losses averaging $140. W = 0.45, so expectancy = 0.45 × 280 − 0.55 × 140 = 126 − 77 = $49 per trade, or 0.35R. Profit factor = 126 ÷ 77 = 1.64, and the break-even win rate is 140 ÷ 420 = 33.3%.

Break-even win rate by reward-to-risk

Reward : riskBreak-even win rateExpectancy at 50% wins (risk $100)
0.5 : 166.7%−$25.00
1 : 150.0%$0.00
1.5 : 140.0%$25.00
2 : 133.3%$50.00
3 : 125.0%$100.00
4 : 120.0%$150.00

The table ignores fees. A $5 round-trip cost on a $100 risk raises the 1 : 1 break-even win rate from 50% to 52.5%.

Tips for measuring your edge

  • Use net numbers. Include commissions, spreads and slippage; many small-edge systems turn negative after costs.
  • Keep the rules constant. Expectancy only means something for trades taken with the same setup and risk rules.
  • Look at R, not just dollars. If your position size changed over time, divide each result by the amount risked before averaging.
  • Plan for streaks. Even a solid system with a 45% win rate can lose six or more trades in a row over 100 trades, so size positions to survive them.
  • Re-check regularly. Market conditions change; recalculate expectancy every 50 to 100 trades.

Frequently asked questions

What is the trading expectancy formula?

Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). With a 45% win rate, a $300 average win and a $150 average loss, expectancy is 0.45 × 300 − 0.55 × 150 = $52.50 per trade. A positive number means the system makes money on average.

What is a good profit factor?

Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss. Anything above 1.0 is profitable before other costs; many traders look for 1.5 or more in a backtest because live results are usually worse. A profit factor above 3 over a small sample often means the sample is too short.

How do I calculate the break-even win rate?

Break-even win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss). If you risk $1 to make $2, you only need to win 1 ÷ 3 = 33.3% of trades to break even. At 1:1 you need 50%, plus a little more to cover fees.

What does expectancy in R mean?

R is the amount you risk or lose on an average losing trade. Expectancy in R = expectancy ÷ average loss, so +0.35R means you make 35% of your typical risk per trade on average. It lets you compare systems with different position sizes.

Can a system with a low win rate be profitable?

Yes. Trend-following systems often win only 30% to 40% of trades but are profitable because the average win is two to four times the average loss. Expectancy combines both numbers, which is why win rate alone tells you little.

How many trades do I need for a reliable expectancy?

More is better. With fewer than about 30 to 50 trades, a few lucky or unlucky results can swing expectancy a lot. Use at least 100 trades from consistent rules before relying on the number, and include fees.

What is the Kelly fraction shown?

Kelly = W − (1 − W) ÷ payoff ratio. It is the theoretical share of capital that maximizes long-run growth if your win rate and payoff are known exactly. Because real estimates are uncertain, most traders risk a small fraction of Kelly, often 1% to 2% of the account per trade.

Are all the tools on FreeToolCabin tested for quality and accuracy?

Yes! Every tool on our site undergoes automated Q/A testing in real browser environments to ensure high precision, correct output, and zero errors. If you happen to spot a bug or have a suggestion, please contact us at [email protected] and our team will review it right away.

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